«Risk Of A Big War Is Rising» Due To «Washington’s Dangerous Cult Of Credibility»
TheLibertarianInstitute, June 21, 2017
Russia will not back down, and neither will its Syrian and Iranian allies on the ground, says a former White House insider.
After the dramatic downing of a Syrian Air Force jet over Raqqa province by a US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet on Monday, a former senior national security advisor to the Obama administration, Colin Kahl, warns that the Washington “cult of credibility” will lead the United States into “quagmire” and “further up the escalation ladder in Syria.”
Kahl’s statement confirms a hawkish Washington national security culture which dangerously places credibility and political careerism over genuine US interests and defense.
Here is Kahl’s statement: «The cult of credibility is as popular in DC as it is dangerous. Watch Syria.
«The risk of sliding into a big war is rising. For years, hawks have argued that Assad & Iran (& Russia after 2015) were essentially paper tigers in Syria. The Axis of Assad could be backed down & easily deterred if the US just showed some muscle. A few threats, strikes, no-fly zones. Voila! Consider what Team Trump has now: Retaliated vs Assad for CW, Bombed Iranian-backed militia 3 times, Shot down an Iranian-made drone, Downed Syria jet.
«Yet the regime/Iran/Russia haven’t backed down. They haven’t been cowed & deterred. Why? Because the terrain they are fighting over, & the US coalition is now operating near, is very important. The days of the ISIS campaign happening in strategically marginal parts of Syria are over.
«The asymmetry of stakes means incremental escalation by US side isn’t enough. It encourages the other side to get more assertive. So we down a plane; Russ threatens our planes. We push toward areas in the east the regime covets; Iranian militia & missile strikes surge.
«That puts the onus back on the Trump administration to go further up the escalation ladder. Hawks at the NSC will argue US credibility has now been engaged, so they keep punching.
«So we down more Syrian planes, kill more Iranian proxies & maybe some Hezbollah & IRGC commanders if we’re lucky. Iran retaliates against our exposed forces in Iraq while the Russians & regime play chicken with us near Raqqa.
«So we have to get tougher still. More retaliatory strikes (maybe into Iran this time!), more US assets & troops for ‘force protection.‘ That is the path to quagmire, a possible clash w/Russia & the war w/Iran some in Trump’s administration (& outside think tanks) want.»
The US already has enmeshed itself in the Syrian quagmire (and was even a driving force of bloodshed and the further Balkanization of the country) when it took up sponsorship of the armed opposition very early in the conflict (through both political support and covert military aid), and this happened under Obama, who as early as August 2011 declared Assad must go.
The US was already very far up the “escalation ladder” the moment it invested itself to the point of having to defend its assets on the ground (whether US-backed fighters, logistical infrastructure, or special forces operating bases).
This is the Obama legacy in Syria inherited by Team Trump: the covert war which is increasingly going overt.
Здешние политиканы, «эксперты», подконтрольные ЦРУ СМ»И» продолжают нахваливать псевдодемократическую Америку.
Те, кто любит «наших американских партнеров», «забывают» о грязных, злых уродах США. О таких монстрах, как коварный и крайне опасный мошенник, расист, лжец, неофашист и убийца Дональд Трамп. И о таких, как порочный Конгресс, кровавые милитаристы США, нацистские ФБР — ЦРУ, лживые американские СМ”И”…
Кричите вместе: «АМЕРИКА ВЫШЕ ВСЕХ! AMERICA FIRST! ТРАМП НАШ!, ТРАМП НАШ!!…”
Арнольд Локшин, политэмигрант из США